Current:Home > NewsHas anyone ever had a perfect bracket for March Madness? The odds and precedents for NCAA predictions-DB Wealth Institute B2 Reviews & Ratings
Has anyone ever had a perfect bracket for March Madness? The odds and precedents for NCAA predictions
lotradecoin low trading fees advantage View Date:2024-12-26 05:13:24
With the 2024 NCAA men's tournament underway and the women's tournament set to begin Friday, the chase for the perfect March Madness bracket has also officially begun. While anyone has a chance to get it completely right, odds are 1 in 9.2. quintillion, according to the NCAA.
In other words, as Tim Chartier, a mathematics and computer science professor at Davidson College in North Carolina, told CBS News, it's like picking a single second in 297 billion years. "It's very difficult," he said.
As of Thursday evening, following No. 14 Oakland's upset of No. 3 Kentucky, the NCAA estimated that only 0.0396% of men's tournament brackets remained perfect.
Has anyone had a perfect bracket?
No, but a neurologist from Columbus, Ohio, named Gregg Nigl had the verified bracket closest to perfection. Back in 2019, he correctly guessed the first 49 games of the men's tournament until then-No. 3 ranked Purdue defeated No. 2 Tennessee in the Sweet 16 — ending his bid for perfection.
He told a local newspaper he almost didn't fill out his bracket because he was home sick hours before the deadline. His record as the longest perfect bracket continues to stand — at least for now.
Before him, someone picked 39 games to start the tournament correctly in 2017, according to the NCAA. That bid fell apart when Purdue defeated Iowa State. In the 2023 NCAA men's tournament, it took only 25 games after No. 16 seeded Fairleigh Dickinson University took down No.1 Purdue.
What are the odds of getting a perfect March Madness bracket?
The NCAA said the odds of a perfect 63-game bracket can be as high as 1 in 9.2 quintillion. Those odds are in play if every game was a coin flip – or a fair 50/50 shot. The amount of different possible outcomes comes out to exactly 9,223,372,036,854,775,808, according to the NCAA.
However, you have a better chance of, say, you and your partner each buying one ticket for a Powerball with a billion dollar jackpot and both winning it than a single person producing a perfect bracket, Chartier, the mathematics professor, told CBS News.
Knowledge of college basketball can tip the scales a bit, as the odds of picking a perfect bracket can be as low as 1 in 128 billion, late DePaul University professor Jeff Bergen said in 2019.
Factors such as travel and injury and other random acts make the tournament hard to predict, according to Chartier. Additionally, the stakes weighing on student athletes during the tournament can't be compared to the season.
"There's a tremendous amount of pressure on some players that were just in high school just a few years ago," he said. "I don't care what happens in the season. None of it really kind of matches the dynamics and the pressure in the history that they set with what happens in the tournament."
Will there ever be a perfect bracket?
Christopher O'Byrne, a lecturer in management information systems at San Diego State University and a college basketball fan, believes a perfect bracket could come if teams followed their "true trajectory" along their seeding positions. O'Byrne told CBS News that one could analyze seeding given out to teams and find some weaknesses there.
But he's not optimistic a perfect bracket will ever happen in his lifetime.
"I hope I live a very long life and have many opportunities or iterations to see a perfect bracket, but I don't have much faith," he said.
- In:
- March Madness
Christopher Brito is a social media manager and trending content writer for CBS News.
veryGood! (56)
Related
- Red Cross blood inventory plummets 25% in July, impacted by heat and record low donations
- Williams-Sonoma must pay almost $3.2 million for violating FTC’s ‘Made in USA’ order
- Murder Victim Margo Compton’s Audio Diaries Revealed in Secrets of the Hells Angels Docuseries
- Kelly Osbourne says brother Jack shot her in the leg when they were kids: 'I almost died'
- As Baltimore’s Sewer System Buckles Under Extreme Weather, City Refuses to Help Residents With Cleanup Efforts
- Taylor Swift releases YouTube short that appears to have new Eras Tour dances
- What to watch and read this weekend from Zendaya's 'Challengers' movie to new Emily Henry
- Berkshire Hathaway’s real estate firm to pay $250 million to settle real estate commission lawsuits
- Ex-YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki dies a year after stepping down. Who is the current CEO?
- Dodgers superstar finds another level after shortstop move: 'The MVP version of Mookie Betts'
Ranking
- Lady Gaga’s Brunette Hair Transformation Will Have You Applauding
- Stock market today: Asian benchmarks mostly climb despite worries about US economy
- Which Express stores are closing? See a full list of locations set to shutter
- Watch smart mama bear save cub's life after plummeting off a bridge into a river
- Andrew Shue's Sister Elisabeth Shares Rare Update on His Life Amid Marilee Fiebig Romance
- A Giant Plastics Chemical Recycling Plant Planned for Pennsylvania Died After Two Years. What Happened?
- Mississippi lawmakers consider new school funding formula
- Only 1 of 10 SUVs gets 'good' rating in crash test updated to reflect higher speeds
Recommendation
-
How 'Millionaire' host Jimmy Kimmel helped Team Barinholtz win stunning top prize
-
South Dakota governor, a potential Trump running mate, writes in new book about killing her dog
-
A California bill aiming to ban confidentiality agreements when negotiating legislation fails
-
Century-old time capsule found at Minnesota high school during demolition
-
Jim Harbaugh wants to hire Colin Kaepernick to Chargers' coaching staff. Will the QB bite?
-
Get 60% Off a Dyson Hair Straightener, $10 BaubleBar Jewelry, Extra 15% Off Pottery Barn Clearance & More
-
Lori Loughlin Says She's Strong, Grateful in First Major Interview Since College Scandal
-
Mississippi lawmakers consider new school funding formula